# APLD Strategic Research Read

## Current Answer

APLD is beginning to convert contracted AI data-center capacity into actual delivered capacity, but most of the headline capacity remains contracted or under construction rather than operating.

## Evidence

- Polaris Forge 1 Building 1 is the cleanest forecast-to-actual proof: forecast for Q4 2025, 50 MW ready for service in October 2025, and 100 MW by November 2025.
- APLD reported 400 MW contracted at Polaris Forge 1, but the current ledger shows only the first 100 MW operating/ready for service.
- APLD’s Q2 FY2026 update reports $85.0 million of HPC Hosting revenue for the quarter, indicating revenue conversion has started.
- The May 2026 “over 1 GW contracted” milestone is best read as backlog/contracted demand, not delivered capacity.

## Research Call

The signal is **constructive but execution-heavy**. APLD is not merely announcing vapor capacity; it has delivered an initial 100 MW. But the bulk of the story still depends on delivering the next 150 MW buildings, Polaris Forge 2, Delta Forge 1, and Polaris Forge 3.

## What Would Change The View

- Positive: Building 2 reaches ready-for-service in calendar 2026 and HPC revenue scales without contract slippage.
- Negative: RFS timing slips, financing terms worsen, or contracted capacity fails to convert into recognized HPC revenue.