# CRWV Strategic Research Memo

## Original Question

Can company-level forecast-vs-actual evidence help us build an early-warning read on AI data-center buildout and downstream semiconductor demand?

## Answer

Yes. CRWV is one of the strongest current additions because it gives a quarterly series for backlog, revenue, active power, contracted power, and capex. It is less granular than APLD on named data-center milestones, but much better on scaled demand conversion.

## Evidence

- Revenue increased from about $982 million in Q1 2025 to about $2.1 billion in Q1 2026.
- Revenue backlog increased from $25.9 billion in Q1 2025 to $99.4 billion in Q1 2026.
- Active power rose from roughly 420 MW in Q1 2025 to more than 1 GW in Q1 2026.
- Contracted power rose from about 1.6 GW in Q1 2025 to about 3.1 GW in Q4 2025.
- Capital expenditures were about $6.8 billion in Q1 2026 after about $8.2 billion in Q4 2025.

## Call

CRWV is a high-quality demand-conversion signal, not a standalone forecast-vs-actual construction ledger. It should sit next to APLD: APLD tests whether named MW get delivered; CRWV tests whether large AI demand converts into revenue, capex, and active power at scale.

## Watch Items

1. Does active power keep rising toward contracted power?
2. Does quarterly revenue continue to convert backlog into recognized revenue?
3. Does capex stay financed without forcing delivery delays?
4. Do customer concentration or contract changes reduce backlog quality?
5. Can we extract site-level delivery dates from filings, transcripts, or presentations?

## Remaining Gaps

The biggest gap is facility-level forecast versus actual delivery. CRWV has strong quarterly financial and power evidence, but this package does not yet map individual data centers, delivery dates, customers, or GPU deployments to each revenue tranche.

## What Would Change The View

- More bullish: active power and revenue keep rising while backlog remains mostly RPO-backed.
- More bearish: backlog grows but active power stalls, capex financing tightens, or revenue conversion slows.