# Equinix Strategic Research Memo

## Original Question

Can company-level forecast-vs-actual evidence help us build an early-warning read on AI data-center buildout and downstream semiconductor demand?

## Answer

Yes. EQIX adds the missing colocation and xScale supply-side lens. It is not a GPU-cloud backlog signal like CRWV and not a hyperscaler RPO signal like Oracle, but it shows whether digital infrastructure operators are actually leasing, opening, connecting, and funding capacity.

## Evidence

- Annualized gross bookings rose from $345M in Q2 2025 to $474M in Q4 2025.
- EQIX delivered record FY2025 capacity: 23,250 retail cabinets and more than 90 MW of xScale capacity.
- It opened 16 projects in 14 metros in FY2025.
- It had 56-59 major projects underway through 2025, including 12 xScale projects in Q1-Q3.
- Interconnections surpassed 500,000 globally, and Q1 2026 MRR grew 12% as reported.

## Call

EQIX is a strong supply-side gauge input. It helps answer whether capacity is being leased and delivered across the colocation ecosystem. It should be used beside APLD, CRWV, and ORCL, not averaged with them.

## Watch Items

1. Does EQIX disclose Q1 2026 annualized gross bookings dollars?
2. Do xScale leased MW and delivered MW continue growing?
3. Are 2026 projects opening on schedule?
4. Does atNorth add the expected Nordics capacity without delays?
5. Do interconnections and MRR keep confirming enterprise/cloud demand?

## Remaining Gaps

The biggest gap is site-level forecast versus actual delivery. This package captures project counts, delivered capacity, bookings, and interconnections, but does not yet map each announced project to opening date, leased MW, customer type, and actual capacity delivered.

## What Would Change The View

- More bullish: bookings stay elevated, xScale delivered MW grows, and projects open on schedule.
- More bearish: bookings fade, project openings slip, or capex guidance is reduced without replacement demand.