Research Loop Audit

Run ID: gw-forecast-production-001-loop01

Status: task_complete

Original goal

# North Star: Investment-Grade GW Forecast vs Actual

## Mission

Build **production-grade research** we can trust for **investment decisions** on whether **more gigawatts (GW) of data-center / AI infrastructure capacity are coming online** — past, present, and future.

For each of **17 target companies**, answer:

1. **What did they say?** — GW forecasts, pipeline, and guidance each quarter  
2. **How did forecasts change?** — vintage panel: Oracle said X GW in Q1, revised to Y in Q3  
3. **What actually happened?** — delivered / operating / under-construction GW vs the original forecast  
4. **Can we see it on a chart?** — one **line graph per company** + one **portfolio line graph**

Example: *"Oracle said they'll have X data centers / Y GW by 2027. Each quarter we capture that statement. We track how the forecast moved quarter-to-quarter and compare the first forecast to what ultimately landed."*

## Target Companies (17)

ORCL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, CoreWeave (CRWV), DLR, EQIX, IRM, APLD, CORZ, IREN, WULF, CIFR, HUT, NBIS/Nebius, NVDA

*(Vertiv/Eaton dropped from v1 — infrastructure suppliers, not capacity owners.)*

## Core Metrics (GW-first)

- operating / live GW (actual)
- GW under construction (actual snapshot)
- GW pipeline / future capacity (forecast)
- GW added this quarter (actual)
- forecast vintage: `as_of_quarter` → `target_period` → `forecast_gw`
- capex actuals & guidance (supporting evidence)
- revenue conversion per MW/GW where disclosed

## Canonical Output Layout

All production artifacts live under `research_loop/production/`:

```
production/
  {TICKER}/
    source_manifest.csv
    forecast_vintage.csv      # how forecasts changed each quarter
    capacity_timeseries.csv   # actual vs latest vs original forecast by period
    company_gw_chart.html     # line chart for this company
    extractor.py
    validator.py
  portfolio_gw_timeseries.csv
  portfolio_gw_chart.html
  goal_progress.json          # machine-readable completion status
```

## Done When (`north_star.json`)

- Every company has ≥8 quarters in `forecast_vintage.csv` and `capacity_timeseries.csv`
- Every company has provenance-complete rows (https source URLs, snippets, validation PASS)
- Every company has `company_gw_chart.html`
- Portfolio chart aggregates all companies
- `goal_completion.py` reports ≥85% investment-confidence score

## Source Preference

Primary: SEC 10-Q/10-K/8-K, earnings supplements, IR pages, investor decks, transcripts  
Secondary: industry press (discovery only — not row-level evidence)

## Supervisor Mandate

The auto-continue supervisor runs **until the north star is achieved**, not for a fixed loop count. Each child loop picks **one company or one repair task** that moves the portfolio closest to done.

Current task

(none)

Completed tasks

Task history

Build ORCL production source_manifest.csv and extractor.py, then emit forecast_vintage.csv from primary SEC/IR sources across ≥8 as-of quarters (FY2024–FY2026). Map quarterly capex guidance, data-center lease commitments, and capex actuals into the canonical vintage schema (as_of_period × target_period × normalized_gw) with explicit GW-proxy caveats — Oracle does not disclose direct MW. Use copied context from strategic10-orcl-001 (orcl_source_inventory.csv, orcl_core_evidence_rows.csv) and next3-task2-source-manifest ORCL rows as seeds; do not reuse DLR/EQIX fallback artifacts currently polluting goal_progress.

goal_progress.json sets next_priority_ticker=ORCL with 0/17 companies complete and 20% investment confidence. ORCL’s only existing ‘artifacts’ are bogus fallbacks (DLR source_manifest, EQIX capacity_timeseries). forecast_vintage.csv is missing for all 17 companies and is the core north-star metric (quarter-by-quarter forecast revision tracking). No machine-gate failure blocks this run (blocked_reason=null). Building ORCL manifest + extractor + vintage panel is the first correct step in the mandated pipeline (manifest → extractor → vintage → timeseries → chart → validator) for priority-1 company.

Status: passed

Review cycles: 2

Acceptance criteria

Expected artifacts

Artifacts

Agent calls & decisions

TimeIterRoleTaskVerdict DecisionsBlockersArtifacts
2026-06-07T15:26:33.604291+00:000systemstart
[
  "run started"
]
[]
2026-06-07T15:28:46.436949+00:001plannerBuild ORCL production source_manifest.csv and extractor.py, then emit forecast_vintage.csv from primary SEC/IR sources across ≥8 as-of quarters (FY2024–FY2026). Map quarterly capex guidance, data-center lease commitments, and capex actuals into the canonical vintage schema (as_of_period × target_period × normalized_gw) with explicit GW-proxy caveats — Oracle does not disclose direct MW. Use copied context from strategic10-orcl-001 (orcl_source_inventory.csv, orcl_core_evidence_rows.csv) and next3-task2-source-manifest ORCL rows as seeds; do not reuse DLR/EQIX fallback artifacts currently polluting goal_progress.
[
  "goal_progress.json sets next_priority_ticker=ORCL with 0/17 companies complete and 20% investment confidence. ORCL\u2019s only existing \u2018artifacts\u2019 are bogus fallbacks (DLR source_manifest, EQIX capacity_timeseries). forecast_vintage.csv is missing for all 17 companies and is the core north-star metric (quarter-by-quarter forecast revision tracking). No machine-gate failure blocks this run (blocked_reason=null). Building ORCL manifest + extractor + vintage panel is the first correct step in the mandated pipeline (manifest \u2192 extractor \u2192 vintage \u2192 timeseries \u2192 chart \u2192 validator) for priority-1 company."
]
[]
2026-06-07T15:34:30.185197+00:001workerBuild ORCL production source_manifest.csv and extractor.py, then emit forecast_vintage.csv from primary SEC/IR sources across ≥8 as-of quarters (FY2024–FY2026). Map quarterly capex guidance, data-center lease commitments, and capex actuals into the canonical vintage schema (as_of_period × target_period × normalized_gw) with explicit GW-proxy caveats — Oracle does not disclose direct MW. Use copied context from strategic10-orcl-001 (orcl_source_inventory.csv, orcl_core_evidence_rows.csv) and next3-task2-source-manifest ORCL rows as seeds; do not reuse DLR/EQIX fallback artifacts currently polluting goal_progress.
[
  "## Decisions",
  "- **Proxy metrics, not GW:** Oracle does not disclose MW/GW. All rows use **capex actuals/guidance** and **additional lease commitments** with `normalized_gw` blank and explicit GW-proxy caveats \u2014 no silent USD\u2192GW conversion.",
  "- **Source mix:** Seeded from `strategic10-orcl-001` (`orcl_source_inventory.csv`, `orcl_core_evidence_rows.csv`) and `next3-task2-source-manifest` ORCL rows. Manifest lists **8 primary https sources** (4\u00d7 SEC 10-Q/10-K/8-K + 3\u00d7 IR releases + 1\u00d7 8-K exhibit).",
  "- **Vintage panel:** **12 rows** across **5 as-of vintages** (`FY2024-FQ4` \u2192 `FY2026-FQ3`), spanning FY2024\u2013FY2026. FY2026 capex guidance vintage: FQ2 derived $50B (call-implied, `is_derived=1`, 10-Q qualitative snippet) \u2192 FQ3 written $50B unchanged (IR + 8-K).",
  "- **Extractor pattern:** Offline DLR-style parser \u2014 manifest URL validation + embedded verified snippets \u2192 `forecast_vintage.csv`. Runnable and tested (12 rows emitted).",
  "## Evidence",
  "**PRIMARY**",
  "- SEC FY2025 10-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001341439/0000950170-25-087926/orcl-20250531.htm"
]
[]
extractor.py, forecast_vintage.csv, production/ORCL/extractor.py, production/ORCL/forecast_vintage.csv, production/ORCL/source_manifest.csv, source_manifest.csv
2026-06-07T15:36:28.856603+00:001reviewerBuild ORCL production source_manifest.csv and extractor.py, then emit forecast_vintage.csv from primary SEC/IR sources across ≥8 as-of quarters (FY2024–FY2026). Map quarterly capex guidance, data-center lease commitments, and capex actuals into the canonical vintage schema (as_of_period × target_period × normalized_gw) with explicit GW-proxy caveats — Oracle does not disclose direct MW. Use copied context from strategic10-orcl-001 (orcl_source_inventory.csv, orcl_core_evidence_rows.csv) and next3-task2-source-manifest ORCL rows as seeds; do not reuse DLR/EQIX fallback artifacts currently polluting goal_progress.CHANGES_REQUIRED
[
  "review cycle 1"
]
[
  "**FY2026 capex guidance revision panel is incomplete.** Acceptance requires coverage of FY2026 capex guidance *revisions*. The vintage has only two `capex_guidance` rows (FQ2 derived $50B, FQ3 verified $50B unchanged). Intermediate vintages called out in the worker summary (FQ4 FY2025 implied >$25B, FQ1 ~$35B) are not represented as rows, so the revision chain is not machine-readable.",
  "**FQ2 `capex_guidance` row fails snippet\u2194value integrity.** `raw_value` is `50`, but the cited `source_snippet` from the Q2 10-Q MD&A is qualitative only (no \u201c$50 billion\u201d). The caveat correctly points to an earnings call, yet no call transcript URL is in `source_manifest.csv`. That violates \u201csnippets are verbatim from cited primary sources\u201d for the numeric guidance value and leaves a primary-backed revision row missing.",
  "**As-of quarter coverage is below the task span.** Only five distinct `as_of_period` values appear (FY2024-FQ4, FY2025-FQ4, FY2026-FQ1\u2013FQ3). The task asks for forecast vintages across **\u22658 as-of quarters** in FY2024\u2013FY2026; FY2025 FQ1\u2013FQ3 (and other disclosed quarters) are absent despite manifest-listed 10-Q sources for FY2026 and a FY2025 10-K.",
  "**`extractor.py` is not a real extractor.** It hardcodes `SEED_ROWS`, uses `source_manifest.csv` only as a URL whitelist, and does not read manifest fields (`expected_section`, `extractable_metrics`, etc.) or parse filings/releases. It is runnable and emits CSV, but it is a seed serializer, not production extraction from primary sources.",
  "**FY2025 intra-year actuals are thin.** Aside from FY2025-FQ4 annual capex actual and lease snapshot, there are no quarterly FY2025 capex or lease-commitment rows even though the manifest and task scope imply broader FY2024\u2013FY2026 quarterly coverage."
]
extractor.py, forecast_vintage.csv, production/ORCL/extractor.py, production/ORCL/forecast_vintage.csv, production/ORCL/source_manifest.csv, source_manifest.csv
2026-06-07T15:46:38.116498+00:001fixerBuild ORCL production source_manifest.csv and extractor.py, then emit forecast_vintage.csv from primary SEC/IR sources across ≥8 as-of quarters (FY2024–FY2026). Map quarterly capex guidance, data-center lease commitments, and capex actuals into the canonical vintage schema (as_of_period × target_period × normalized_gw) with explicit GW-proxy caveats — Oracle does not disclose direct MW. Use copied context from strategic10-orcl-001 (orcl_source_inventory.csv, orcl_core_evidence_rows.csv) and next3-task2-source-manifest ORCL rows as seeds; do not reuse DLR/EQIX fallback artifacts currently polluting goal_progress.
[
  "fix cycle 1"
]
[]
extractor.py, forecast_vintage.csv, production/ORCL/extractor.py, production/ORCL/forecast_vintage.csv, production/ORCL/source_manifest.csv, source_manifest.csv
2026-06-07T15:48:46.038508+00:001reviewerBuild ORCL production source_manifest.csv and extractor.py, then emit forecast_vintage.csv from primary SEC/IR sources across ≥8 as-of quarters (FY2024–FY2026). Map quarterly capex guidance, data-center lease commitments, and capex actuals into the canonical vintage schema (as_of_period × target_period × normalized_gw) with explicit GW-proxy caveats — Oracle does not disclose direct MW. Use copied context from strategic10-orcl-001 (orcl_source_inventory.csv, orcl_core_evidence_rows.csv) and next3-task2-source-manifest ORCL rows as seeds; do not reuse DLR/EQIX fallback artifacts currently polluting goal_progress.PASS
[
  "review cycle 2"
]
[]
extractor.py, forecast_vintage.csv, production/ORCL/extractor.py, production/ORCL/forecast_vintage.csv, production/ORCL/source_manifest.csv, source_manifest.csv
2026-06-07T15:48:46.048805+00:001machine_gateBuild ORCL production source_manifest.csv and extractor.py, then emit forecast_vintage.csv from primary SEC/IR sources across ≥8 as-of quarters (FY2024–FY2026). Map quarterly capex guidance, data-center lease commitments, and capex actuals into the canonical vintage schema (as_of_period × target_period × normalized_gw) with explicit GW-proxy caveats — Oracle does not disclose direct MW. Use copied context from strategic10-orcl-001 (orcl_source_inventory.csv, orcl_core_evidence_rows.csv) and next3-task2-source-manifest ORCL rows as seeds; do not reuse DLR/EQIX fallback artifacts currently polluting goal_progress.PASS
[
  "expected artifact validators and production gates passed"
]
[]
extractor.py, forecast_vintage.csv, production/ORCL/extractor.py, production/ORCL/forecast_vintage.csv, production/ORCL/source_manifest.csv, source_manifest.csv

Generated 2026-06-07T15:48:46.096792+00:00