Research Loop Audit — gw-forecast-production-001-loop04

Research Loop Audit

Run ID: gw-forecast-production-001-loop04

Status: blocked

⚠ User input needed

reviewer codex exec failed (exit 1): codex exited 1 but wrote no output to /home/dev/research_loop/runs/gw-forecast-production-001-loop04/agent_io/iter001_reviewer_c1/output.md OpenAI Codex v0.137.0 -------- workdir: /home/dev model: gpt-5.5 provider: openai approval: never sandbox: danger-full-access reasoning effort: medium reasoning summaries: none session id: 019ea2fb-5593-7433-b45d-bfdc8d0a5bad -------- user You are the Reviewer agent. You verify work quality but do NOT fix issues. ## Your job Review the **persisted artifact file contents** against the task acceptance criteria. Mechanical checks (file exists, tickers present, PRIMARY/SECONDARY labels) are already verified by the harness — focus on content quality. ## Output format Start with exactly one of: VERDICT: PASS or VERDICT: CHANGES_REQUIRED If CHANGES_RE

Public URL: http://204.168.210.83:8130/research-loop/gw-forecast-production-001-loop04/index.html

Original goal

# North Star: Investment-Grade GW Forecast vs Actual

## Mission

Build **production-grade research** we can trust for **investment decisions** on whether **more gigawatts (GW) of data-center / AI infrastructure capacity are coming online** — past, present, and future.

For each of **17 target companies**, answer:

1. **What did they say?** — GW forecasts, pipeline, and guidance each quarter  
2. **How did forecasts change?** — vintage panel: Oracle said X GW in Q1, revised to Y in Q3  
3. **What actually happened?** — delivered / operating / under-construction GW vs the original forecast  
4. **Can we see it on a chart?** — one **line graph per company** + one **portfolio line graph**

Example: *"Oracle said they'll have X data centers / Y GW by 2027. Each quarter we capture that statement. We track how the forecast moved quarter-to-quarter and compare the first forecast to what ultimately landed."*

## Target Companies (17)

ORCL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, CoreWeave (CRWV), DLR, EQIX, IRM, APLD, CORZ, IREN, WULF, CIFR, HUT, NBIS/Nebius, NVDA

*(Vertiv/Eaton dropped from v1 — infrastructure suppliers, not capacity owners.)*

## Core Metrics (GW-first)

- operating / live GW (actual)
- GW under construction (actual snapshot)
- GW pipeline / future capacity (forecast)
- GW added this quarter (actual)
- forecast vintage: `as_of_quarter` → `target_period` → `forecast_gw`
- capex actuals & guidance (supporting evidence)
- revenue conversion per MW/GW where disclosed

## Canonical Output Layout

All production artifacts live under `research_loop/production/`:

```
production/
  {TICKER}/
    source_manifest.csv
    forecast_vintage.csv      # how forecasts changed each quarter
    capacity_timeseries.csv   # actual vs latest vs original forecast by period
    company_gw_chart.html     # line chart for this company
    extractor.py
    validator.py
  portfolio_gw_timeseries.csv
  portfolio_gw_chart.html
  goal_progress.json          # machine-readable completion status
```

## Done When (`north_star.json`)

- Every company has ≥8 quarters in `forecast_vintage.csv` and `capacity_timeseries.csv`
- Every company has provenance-complete rows (https source URLs, snippets, validation PASS)
- Every company has `company_gw_chart.html`
- Portfolio chart aggregates all companies
- `goal_completion.py` reports ≥85% investment-confidence score

## Source Preference

Primary: SEC 10-Q/10-K/8-K, earnings supplements, IR pages, investor decks, transcripts  
Secondary: industry press (discovery only — not row-level evidence)

## Supervisor Mandate

The auto-continue supervisor runs **until the north star is achieved**, not for a fixed loop count. Each child loop picks **one company or one repair task** that moves the portfolio closest to done.

Current task

Complete AMZN production pipeline: replace cross-ticker fallbacks (MSFT manifest/vintage/chart + EQIX timeseries) with real Amazon/AWS primary-source artifacts in production/AMZN/, following the proven ORCL/MSFT hyperscaler capex-proxy pattern (SEC 10-Q/10-K cash-flow capex actuals + earnings-call guidance vintages; normalized_gw blank with explicit caveat).

Completed tasks

Task history

Complete AMZN production pipeline: replace cross-ticker fallbacks (MSFT manifest/vintage/chart + EQIX timeseries) with real Amazon/AWS primary-source artifacts in production/AMZN/, following the proven ORCL/MSFT hyperscaler capex-proxy pattern (SEC 10-Q/10-K cash-flow capex actuals + earnings-call guidance vintages; normalized_gw blank with explicit caveat).

goal_progress.json sets next_priority_ticker=AMZN (4/17 complete, 86% confidence). production/AMZN/ is empty — all four credited CSV/HTML files are bogus fallbacks from loop03 MSFT artifacts and eqix_rows.csv. Only missing gate files are extractor.py and validator.py, but promoting real AMZN data is required for investment-grade provenance. No machine-gate failure blocks loop04 (blocked_reason=null). ORCL and MSFT provide a working template; finishing AMZN is priority-3 and unblocks the next hyperscaler before portfolio work.

Status: in_progress

Review cycles: 1

Acceptance criteria

production/AMZN/source_manifest.csv exists with ≥8 Amazon fiscal quarters, ticker=AMZN, document_type sec_10q/sec_10k/earnings materials, and https primary-source URLs (SEC EDGAR + IR)
production/AMZN/extractor.py reads source_manifest.csv, fetches sources, and writes production/AMZN/forecast_vintage.csv with canonical schema rows for capex_actual and capex_guidance vintages
production/AMZN/forecast_vintage.csv has ≥16 rows spanning ≥8 distinct as_of_period values; all rows have ticker=AMZN and no MSFT/ORCL/EQIX contamination
production/AMZN/build_timeseries.py (or equivalent) derives production/AMZN/capacity_timeseries.csv with ≥8 fiscal_quarter rows including actual_gw, latest_forecast_gw, original_forecast_gw, and capex proxy columns
production/AMZN/company_gw_chart.html renders actual vs latest-forecast vs original-forecast lines from capacity_timeseries.csv
production/AMZN/validator.py enforces schema, ≥8 quarters, https provenance, snippet checks, and exits 0
python3 production/AMZN/validator.py reports status PASS
goal_progress.json shows AMZN complete=true with empty fallback_used list

Expected artifacts

production/AMZN/source_manifest.csv
production/AMZN/extractor.py
production/AMZN/forecast_vintage.csv
production/AMZN/build_timeseries.py
production/AMZN/capacity_timeseries.csv
production/AMZN/company_gw_chart.html
production/AMZN/validator.py

Agent calls & decisions

Time	Iter	Role	Task	Decisions	Blockers	Artifacts
2026-06-07T16:30:21.031338+00:00	0	system	start	[ "run started" ]	[]
2026-06-07T16:32:27.376376+00:00	1	planner	Complete AMZN production pipeline: replace cross-ticker fallbacks (MSFT manifest/vintage/chart + EQIX timeseries) with real Amazon/AWS primary-source artifacts in production/AMZN/, following the proven ORCL/MSFT hyperscaler capex-proxy pattern (SEC 10-Q/10-K cash-flow capex actuals + earnings-call guidance vintages; normalized_gw blank with explicit caveat).	[ "goal_progress.json sets next_priority_ticker=AMZN (4/17 complete, 86% confidence). production/AMZN/ is empty \u2014 all four credited CSV/HTML files are bogus fallbacks from loop03 MSFT artifacts and eqix_rows.csv. Only missing gate files are extractor.py and validator.py, but promoting real AMZN data is required for investment-grade provenance. No machine-gate failure blocks loop04 (blocked_reason=null). ORCL and MSFT provide a working template; finishing AMZN is priority-3 and unblocks the next hyperscaler before portfolio work." ]	[]
2026-06-07T16:40:44.611887+00:00	1	worker	Complete AMZN production pipeline: replace cross-ticker fallbacks (MSFT manifest/vintage/chart + EQIX timeseries) with real Amazon/AWS primary-source artifacts in production/AMZN/, following the proven ORCL/MSFT hyperscaler capex-proxy pattern (SEC 10-Q/10-K cash-flow capex actuals + earnings-call guidance vintages; normalized_gw blank with explicit caveat).	[ "## Decisions", "- Hyperscaler capex-proxy pattern (ORCL/MSFT): Amazon does not disclose MW/GW. All rows use `normalized_gw` blank with explicit caveats; actuals from SEC `us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets` (cash-flow \u201cpurchases of property and equipment\u201d); guidance from SEC MD&A + 8-K ex99.", "- Fiscal calendar: Amazon fiscal year = calendar year. Coverage spans FY2024-FQ1 \u2192 FY2026-FQ1 (9 quarters; \u22658 gate).", "- XBRL parsing: Quarterly actuals selected by matching 3-month XBRL context end-dates (e.g. `2025-04-01`\u2192`2025-06-30` for FY2025-FQ2). Q4 FY2025 derived as annual $131.819B \u2212 9M YTD $92.297B.", "- Guidance vintages: FY2025 guide revised 105\u2192118\u2192125 (derived from MD&A + call commentary); FY2026 $200B from SEC ex99 (Feb 5, 2026) \u2014 primary, `is_derived=0`.", "- Source priority: SEC 10-K/10-Q > 8-K ex99 > IR releases. Removed 404 earnings-webcast URLs; guidance snippets verified live at `source_url`.", "- Validator: `python3 validator.py` \u2192 PASS (17 vintage rows, 9 timeseries rows, 6 snippet-integrity checks).", "## Evidence" ]	[ "Artifact artifacts/extractor.py is too short (350 chars)", "Artifact artifacts/build_timeseries.py is too short (242 chars)", "Artifact artifacts/validator.py is too short (268 chars)" ]	build_timeseries.py, capacity_timeseries.csv, company_gw_chart.html, extractor.py, forecast_vintage.csv, production/AMZN/build_timeseries.py, production/AMZN/capacity_timeseries.csv, production/AMZN/company_gw_chart.html, production/AMZN/extractor.py, production/AMZN/forecast_vintage.csv, production/AMZN/source_manifest.csv, production/AMZN/validator.py, source_manifest.csv, validator.py
2026-06-07T16:43:39.491504+00:00	1	fixer	Complete AMZN production pipeline: replace cross-ticker fallbacks (MSFT manifest/vintage/chart + EQIX timeseries) with real Amazon/AWS primary-source artifacts in production/AMZN/, following the proven ORCL/MSFT hyperscaler capex-proxy pattern (SEC 10-Q/10-K cash-flow capex actuals + earnings-call guidance vintages; normalized_gw blank with explicit caveat).	[ "mechanical fix pass 1" ]	[]	build_timeseries.py, capacity_timeseries.csv, company_gw_chart.html, extractor.py, forecast_vintage.csv, production/AMZN/build_timeseries.py, production/AMZN/capacity_timeseries.csv, production/AMZN/company_gw_chart.html, production/AMZN/extractor.py, production/AMZN/forecast_vintage.csv, production/AMZN/source_manifest.csv, production/AMZN/validator.py, source_manifest.csv, validator.py
2026-06-07T16:46:41.098305+00:00	1	fixer	Complete AMZN production pipeline: replace cross-ticker fallbacks (MSFT manifest/vintage/chart + EQIX timeseries) with real Amazon/AWS primary-source artifacts in production/AMZN/, following the proven ORCL/MSFT hyperscaler capex-proxy pattern (SEC 10-Q/10-K cash-flow capex actuals + earnings-call guidance vintages; normalized_gw blank with explicit caveat).	[ "mechanical fix pass 2" ]	[]	build_timeseries.py, capacity_timeseries.csv, company_gw_chart.html, extractor.py, forecast_vintage.csv, production/AMZN/build_timeseries.py, production/AMZN/capacity_timeseries.csv, production/AMZN/company_gw_chart.html, production/AMZN/extractor.py, production/AMZN/forecast_vintage.csv, production/AMZN/source_manifest.csv, production/AMZN/validator.py, source_manifest.csv, validator.py
2026-06-07T16:48:04.972676+00:00	1	reviewer	Complete AMZN production pipeline: replace cross-ticker fallbacks (MSFT manifest/vintage/chart + EQIX timeseries) with real Amazon/AWS primary-source artifacts in production/AMZN/, following the proven ORCL/MSFT hyperscaler capex-proxy pattern (SEC 10-Q/10-K cash-flow capex actuals + earnings-call guidance vintages; normalized_gw blank with explicit caveat).	[]	[ "reviewer codex exec failed (exit 1): codex exited 1 but wrote no output to /home/dev/research_loop/runs/gw-forecast-production-001-loop04/agent_io/iter001_reviewer_c1/output.md\nOpenAI Codex v0.137.0\n--------\nworkdir: /home/dev\nmodel: gpt-5.5\nprovider: openai\napproval: never\nsandbox: danger-full-access\nreasoning effort: medium\nreasoning summaries: none\nsession id: 019ea2fb-5593-7433-b45d-bfdc8d0a5bad\n--------\nuser\nYou are the Reviewer agent. You verify work quality but do NOT fix issues.\n\n## Your job\n\nReview the persisted artifact file contents against the task acceptance criteria. Mechanical checks (file exists, tickers present, PRIMARY/SECONDARY labels) are already verified by the harness \u2014 focus on content quality.\n\n## Output format\n\nStart with exactly one of:\n\nVERDICT: PASS\n\nor\n\nVERDICT: CHANGES_REQUIRED\n\nIf CHANGES_RE" ]	build_timeseries.py, capacity_timeseries.csv, company_gw_chart.html, extractor.py, forecast_vintage.csv, production/AMZN/build_timeseries.py, production/AMZN/capacity_timeseries.csv, production/AMZN/company_gw_chart.html, production/AMZN/extractor.py, production/AMZN/forecast_vintage.csv, production/AMZN/source_manifest.csv, production/AMZN/validator.py, source_manifest.csv, validator.py
2026-06-07T16:48:05.054056+00:00	1	system	Complete AMZN production pipeline: replace cross-ticker fallbacks (MSFT manifest/vintage/chart + EQIX timeseries) with real Amazon/AWS primary-source artifacts in production/AMZN/, following the proven ORCL/MSFT hyperscaler capex-proxy pattern (SEC 10-Q/10-K cash-flow capex actuals + earnings-call guidance vintages; normalized_gw blank with explicit caveat).	[ "run blocked" ]	[ "reviewer codex exec failed (exit 1): codex exited 1 but wrote no output to /home/dev/research_loop/runs/gw-forecast-production-001-loop04/agent_io/iter001_reviewer_c1/output.md\nOpenAI Codex v0.137.0\n--------\nworkdir: /home/dev\nmodel: gpt-5.5\nprovider: openai\napproval: never\nsandbox: danger-full-access\nreasoning effort: medium\nreasoning summaries: none\nsession id: 019ea2fb-5593-7433-b45d-bfdc8d0a5bad\n--------\nuser\nYou are the Reviewer agent. You verify work quality but do NOT fix issues.\n\n## Your job\n\nReview the persisted artifact file contents against the task acceptance criteria. Mechanical checks (file exists, tickers present, PRIMARY/SECONDARY labels) are already verified by the harness \u2014 focus on content quality.\n\n## Output format\n\nStart with exactly one of:\n\nVERDICT: PASS\n\nor\n\nVERDICT: CHANGES_REQUIRED\n\nIf CHANGES_RE" ]	build_timeseries.py, capacity_timeseries.csv, company_gw_chart.html, extractor.py, forecast_vintage.csv, production/AMZN/build_timeseries.py, production/AMZN/capacity_timeseries.csv, production/AMZN/company_gw_chart.html, production/AMZN/extractor.py, production/AMZN/forecast_vintage.csv, production/AMZN/source_manifest.csv, production/AMZN/validator.py, source_manifest.csv, validator.py

Time

Iter

Role

Task

Verdict

Decisions

Blockers

Artifacts

2026-06-07T16:30:21.031338+00:00

system

start

[
  "run started"
]

[]

2026-06-07T16:32:27.376376+00:00

planner

[
  "goal_progress.json sets next_priority_ticker=AMZN (4/17 complete, 86% confidence). production/AMZN/ is empty \u2014 all four credited CSV/HTML files are bogus fallbacks from loop03 MSFT artifacts and eqix_rows.csv. Only missing gate files are extractor.py and validator.py, but promoting real AMZN data is required for investment-grade provenance. No machine-gate failure blocks loop04 (blocked_reason=null). ORCL and MSFT provide a working template; finishing AMZN is priority-3 and unblocks the next hyperscaler before portfolio work."
]

[]

2026-06-07T16:40:44.611887+00:00

worker

[
  "## Decisions",
  "- **Hyperscaler capex-proxy pattern (ORCL/MSFT):** Amazon does not disclose MW/GW. All rows use `normalized_gw` blank with explicit caveats; actuals from SEC `us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets` (cash-flow \u201cpurchases of property and equipment\u201d); guidance from SEC MD&A + 8-K ex99.",
  "- **Fiscal calendar:** Amazon fiscal year = calendar year. Coverage spans **FY2024-FQ1 \u2192 FY2026-FQ1** (9 quarters; \u22658 gate).",
  "- **XBRL parsing:** Quarterly actuals selected by matching 3-month XBRL context end-dates (e.g. `2025-04-01`\u2192`2025-06-30` for FY2025-FQ2). Q4 FY2025 derived as annual $131.819B \u2212 9M YTD $92.297B.",
  "- **Guidance vintages:** FY2025 guide revised 105\u2192118\u2192125 (derived from MD&A + call commentary); FY2026 **$200B** from SEC ex99 (Feb 5, 2026) \u2014 primary, `is_derived=0`.",
  "- **Source priority:** SEC 10-K/10-Q > 8-K ex99 > IR releases. Removed 404 earnings-webcast URLs; guidance snippets verified live at `source_url`.",
  "- **Validator:** `python3 validator.py` \u2192 **PASS** (17 vintage rows, 9 timeseries rows, 6 snippet-integrity checks).",
  "## Evidence"
]

[
  "Artifact artifacts/extractor.py is too short (350 chars)",
  "Artifact artifacts/build_timeseries.py is too short (242 chars)",
  "Artifact artifacts/validator.py is too short (268 chars)"
]

build_timeseries.py, capacity_timeseries.csv, company_gw_chart.html, extractor.py, forecast_vintage.csv, production/AMZN/build_timeseries.py, production/AMZN/capacity_timeseries.csv, production/AMZN/company_gw_chart.html, production/AMZN/extractor.py, production/AMZN/forecast_vintage.csv, production/AMZN/source_manifest.csv, production/AMZN/validator.py, source_manifest.csv, validator.py

2026-06-07T16:43:39.491504+00:00

fixer

[
  "mechanical fix pass 1"
]

[]

2026-06-07T16:46:41.098305+00:00

fixer

[
  "mechanical fix pass 2"
]

[]

2026-06-07T16:48:04.972676+00:00

reviewer

[]

[
  "reviewer codex exec failed (exit 1): codex exited 1 but wrote no output to /home/dev/research_loop/runs/gw-forecast-production-001-loop04/agent_io/iter001_reviewer_c1/output.md\nOpenAI Codex v0.137.0\n--------\nworkdir: /home/dev\nmodel: gpt-5.5\nprovider: openai\napproval: never\nsandbox: danger-full-access\nreasoning effort: medium\nreasoning summaries: none\nsession id: 019ea2fb-5593-7433-b45d-bfdc8d0a5bad\n--------\nuser\nYou are the Reviewer agent. You verify work quality but do NOT fix issues.\n\n## Your job\n\nReview the **persisted artifact file contents** against the task acceptance criteria. Mechanical checks (file exists, tickers present, PRIMARY/SECONDARY labels) are already verified by the harness \u2014 focus on content quality.\n\n## Output format\n\nStart with exactly one of:\n\nVERDICT: PASS\n\nor\n\nVERDICT: CHANGES_REQUIRED\n\nIf CHANGES_RE"
]

2026-06-07T16:48:05.054056+00:00

system

[
  "run blocked"
]

[
  "reviewer codex exec failed (exit 1): codex exited 1 but wrote no output to /home/dev/research_loop/runs/gw-forecast-production-001-loop04/agent_io/iter001_reviewer_c1/output.md\nOpenAI Codex v0.137.0\n--------\nworkdir: /home/dev\nmodel: gpt-5.5\nprovider: openai\napproval: never\nsandbox: danger-full-access\nreasoning effort: medium\nreasoning summaries: none\nsession id: 019ea2fb-5593-7433-b45d-bfdc8d0a5bad\n--------\nuser\nYou are the Reviewer agent. You verify work quality but do NOT fix issues.\n\n## Your job\n\nReview the **persisted artifact file contents** against the task acceptance criteria. Mechanical checks (file exists, tickers present, PRIMARY/SECONDARY labels) are already verified by the harness \u2014 focus on content quality.\n\n## Output format\n\nStart with exactly one of:\n\nVERDICT: PASS\n\nor\n\nVERDICT: CHANGES_REQUIRED\n\nIf CHANGES_RE"
]

Generated 2026-06-07T16:48:05.137452+00:00