GW Powered-On / Best-Proxy Research Progress

The goal is not just “data-center capex.” The goal is to track how much capacity companies said they would power on, how those forecasts changed quarter by quarter, and what actually happened. When direct GW is unavailable, the page separates best proxies from true GW instead of blending them.

Production-accepted companies15 / 17ORCL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, CRWV, IRM, APLD, CORZ, IREN, WULF, CIFR, HUT, NBIS, NVDA
Accepted direct-GW companies977 accepted actual-GW rows
Accepted proxy companies434 capex-proxy rows
Forecast-vintage rows accepted208What companies said, by as-of period
Repairing now0none
Portfolio GW chartMissingCannot be honest until direct-GW/proxy basis is reconciled

Plain-English Status

We have a working production pattern for hyperscalers, but so far it mostly captures capex as a proxy, not powered-on GW. ORCL, MSFT, and AMZN are accepted proxy datasets. GOOGL is being repaired because the reviewer found some numeric guidance rows whose snippets did not directly support the number. The direct-GW part of the research is still effectively not done: current accepted direct powered-on GW rows = 77.

Progress Against The Actual Goal

Company production pipelines accepted15 / 17
Companies with direct GW rows9 / 17
Companies with best-proxy rows4 / 17
Forecast revision schema proven1 / 1
Portfolio forecast-vs-actual chart0 / 1

What Still Needs To Be Done

1. Finish GOOGL repair so every forecast number is supported by its cited snippet. 2. Prioritize direct-GW companies next: DLR, EQIX, IRM, APLD, CRWV, CORZ, IREN, WULF, CIFR, HUT, NBIS. 3. For each company, separate true GW from proxies and label the basis. 4. Build portfolio aggregation only after bases are comparable. 5. Add forecast-vs-actual scoring once delivered outcomes exist.

Company Coverage

CompanyStatusActual GW rowsProxy rowsForecast vintages / as-of periodsChartMeaning
ORCLAccepted proxy0816 / 8yesCapex proxy only; direct GW blank
MSFTAccepted proxy0816 / 8yesCapex proxy only; direct GW blank
AMZNAccepted proxy0917 / 9yesCapex proxy only; direct GW blank
GOOGLAccepted proxy0920 / 9yesCapex proxy only; direct GW blank
METAAccepted GW0013 / 12yesDirect GW present
CRWVAccepted GW7012 / 8yesDirect GW present
DLRFallback-contaminated000 / 0yesLooks filled, but copied/fallback artifacts must be replaced
EQIXFallback-contaminated000 / 0yesLooks filled, but copied/fallback artifacts must be replaced
IRMAccepted GW909 / 9yesDirect GW present
APLDAccepted GW11011 / 11yesDirect GW present
CORZAccepted GW8012 / 8yesDirect GW present
IRENAccepted GW9015 / 9yesDirect GW present
WULFAccepted GW11016 / 11yesDirect GW present
CIFRAccepted GW13013 / 13yesDirect GW present
HUTAccepted GW9012 / 9yesDirect GW present
NBISAccepted GW0017 / 9yesDirect GW present
NVDAAccepted GW009 / 9yesDirect GW present

Recent Agent Work

LoopRunStatusTask
1gw-forecast-production-001-loop01task_completeBuild ORCL production source_manifest.csv and extractor.py, then emit forecast_vintage.csv from primary SEC/IR sources across ≥8 as-of quarters (FY2024–FY2026). Map quarterly capex guidance, data-center lease c
2gw-forecast-production-001-loop02task_completeComplete ORCL production gates: copy loop01 machine-gate PASS artifacts (source_manifest.csv, extractor.py, forecast_vintage.csv) into production/ORCL/, then derive capacity_timeseries.csv from the vintage pane
3gw-forecast-production-001-loop03task_completeComplete MSFT production gates end-to-end: build production/MSFT/source_manifest.csv (≥8 fiscal quarters FY2024-FQ4–FY2026-FQ3 with MSFT SEC 10-Q/10-K + IR earnings URLs), implement extractor.py to emit MSFT-sp
4gw-forecast-production-001-loop04blockedComplete AMZN production pipeline: replace cross-ticker fallbacks (MSFT manifest/vintage/chart + EQIX timeseries) with real Amazon/AWS primary-source artifacts in production/AMZN/, following the proven ORCL/MSF
5gw-forecast-production-001-loop05task_completeRepair the failed prior child run `gw-forecast-production-001-loop04`. The previous task was: Complete AMZN production pipeline: replace cross-ticker fallbacks (MSFT manifest/vintage/chart + EQIX timeseries) w
6gw-forecast-production-001-loop06blockedComplete GOOGL production pipeline: replace cross-ticker fallbacks (AMZN manifest/vintage/chart from loop05 + EQIX eqix_rows.csv timeseries) with real Alphabet/Google primary-source artifacts in production/GOOG
7gw-forecast-production-001-loop07runningRepair the failed prior child run `gw-forecast-production-001-loop06`. The previous task was: Complete GOOGL production pipeline: replace cross-ticker fallbacks (AMZN manifest/vintage/chart from loop05 + EQIX

Links

Generated 2026-06-07T19:07:25+00:00. Active supervisor: gw-forecast-production-001-loop07.