Supervisor ID: gw-forecast-production-001
Status: running
Requested iterations: 50
Until north star complete: True
Last message: started gw-forecast-production-001-loop07
Context runs: strategic10-eqix-001, strategic10-orcl-001, strategic10-crwv-001, strategic5b-apld-001, next3-task1-dlr-extractor, next3-task2-source-manifest, next3-task3-next-batch-plan, gw-forecast-production-001-loop01, gw-forecast-production-001-loop02, gw-forecast-production-001-loop03, gw-forecast-production-001-loop05
{
"complete": false,
"overall_confidence": 0.882,
"threshold": 0.85,
"companies_complete": 6,
"companies_total": 17,
"portfolio": {
"complete": false,
"files": {
"portfolio_gw_timeseries.csv": false,
"portfolio_gw_chart.html": false
},
"row_count": 0
},
"incomplete_tickers": [
"META",
"CRWV",
"IRM",
"APLD",
"CORZ",
"IREN",
"WULF",
"CIFR",
"HUT",
"NBIS",
"NVDA"
],
"next_priority_ticker": "META",
"companies": [
{
"ticker": "ORCL",
"complete": true,
"confidence": 1.0,
"files": {
"source_manifest.csv": true,
"forecast_vintage.csv": true,
"capacity_timeseries.csv": true,
"company_gw_chart.html": true,
"extractor.py": true,
"validator.py": true
},
"row_counts": {
"source_manifest.csv": 19,
"forecast_vintage.csv": 16,
"capacity_timeseries.csv": 8
},
"production_dir": "/home/dev/research_loop/production/ORCL",
"fallback_used": []
},
{
"ticker": "MSFT",
"complete": true,
"confidence": 1.0,
"files": {
"source_manifest.csv": true,
"forecast_vintage.csv": true,
"capacity_timeseries.csv": true,
"company_gw_chart.html": true,
"extractor.py": true,
"validator.py": true
},
"row_counts": {
"source_manifest.csv": 19,
"forecast_vintage.csv": 16,
"capacity_timeseries.csv": 8
},
"production_dir": "/home/dev/research_loop/production/MSFT",
"fallback_used": []
},
{
"ticker": "AMZN",
"complete": true,
"confidence": 1.0,
"files": {
"source_manifest.csv": true,
"forecast_vintage.csv": true,
"capacity_timeseries.csv": true,
"company_gw_chart.html": true,
"extractor.py": true,
"validator.py": true
},
"row_counts": {
"source_manifest.csv": 19,
"forecast_vintage.csv": 17,
"capacity_timeseries.csv": 9
},
"production_dir": "/home/dev/research_loop/production/AMZN",
"fallback_used": []
},
{
"ticker": "GOOGL",
"complete": true,
"confidence": 1.0,
"files": {
"source_manifest.csv": true,
"forecast_vintage.csv": true,
"capacity_timeseries.csv": true,
"company_gw_chart.html": true,
"extractor.py": true,
"validator.py": true
},
"row_counts": {
"source_manifest.csv": 15,
"forecast_vintage.csv": 20,
"capacity_timeseries.csv": 9
},
"production_dir": "/home/dev/research_loop/production/GOOGL",
"fallback_used": []
},
{
"ticker": "META",
"complete": false,
"confidence": 0.817,
"files": {
"source_manifest.csv": true,
"forecast_vintage.csv": true,
"capacity_timeseries.csv": true,
"company_gw_chart.html": true,
"extractor.py": false,
"validator.py": false
},
"row_counts": {
"source_manifest.csv": 15,
"forecast_vintage.csv": 23,
"capacity_timeseries.csv": 24,
"extractor.py": 0,
"validator.py": 0
},
"production_dir": "/home/dev/research_loop/production/META",
"fallback_used": [
"source_manifest.csv",
"forecast_vintage.csv",
"capacity_timeseries.csv",
"company_gw_chart.html"
]
},
{
"ticker": "CRWV",
"complete": false,
"confidence": 0.817,
"files": {
"source_manifest.csv": true,
"forecast_vintage.csv": true,
"capacity_timeseries.csv": true,
"company_gw_chart.html": true,
"extractor.py": false,
"validator.py": false
},
"row_counts": {
"source_manifest.csv": 15,
"forecast_vintage.csv": 23,
"capacity_timeseries.csv": 24,
"extractor.py": 0,
"validator.py": 0
},
"production_dir": "/home/dev/research_loop/production/CRWV",
"fallback_used": [
"source_manifest.csv",
"forecast_vintage.csv",
"capacity_timeseries.csv",
"company_gw_chart.html"
]
},
{
"ticker": "DLR",
"complete": true,
"confidence": 1.0,
"files": {
"source_manifest.csv": true,
"forecast_vintage.csv": true,
"capacity_timeseries.csv": true,
"company_gw_chart.html": true,
"extractor.py": true,
"validator.py": true
},
"row_counts": {
"source_manifest.csv": 15,
"forecast_vintage.csv": 23,
"capacity_timeseries.csv": 24
},
"production_dir": "/home/dev/research_loop/production/DLR",
"fallback_used": [
"source_manifest.csv",
"forecast_vintage.csv",
"capacity_timeseries.csv",
"company_gw_chart.html",
"extractor.py",
"validator.py"
]
},
{
"ticker": "EQIX",
"complete": true,
"confidence": 1.0,
"files": {
"source_manifest.csv": true,
"forecast_vintage.csv": true,
"capacity_timeseries.csv": true,
"company_gw_chart.html": true,
"extractor.py": true,
"validator.py": true
},
"row_counts": {
"source_manifest.csv": 15,
"forecast_vintage.csv": 23,
"capacity_timeseries.csv": 24
},
"production_dir": "/home/dev/research_loop/production/EQIX",
"fallback_used": [
"source_manifest.csv",
"forecast_vintage.csv",
"capacity_timeseries.csv",
"company_gw_chart.html",
"extractor.py",
"validator.py"
]
},
{
"ticker": "IRM",
"complete": false,
"confidence": 0.817,
"files": {
"source_manifest.csv": true,
"forecast_vintage.csv": true,
"capacity_timeseries.csv": true,
"company_gw_chart.html": true,
"extractor.py": false,
"validator.py": false
},
"row_counts": {
"source_manifest.csv": 15,
"forecast_vintage.csv": 23,
"capacity_timeseries.csv": 24,
"extractor.py": 0,
"validator.py": 0
},
"production_dir": "/home/dev/research_loop/production/IRM",
"fallback_used": [
"source_manifest.csv",
"forecast_vintage.csv",
"capacity_timeseries.csv",
"company_gw_chart.html"
]
},
{
"ticker": "APLD",
"complete": false,
"confidence": 0.817,
"files": {
"source_manifest.csv": true,
"forecast_vintage.csv": true,
"capacity_timeseries.csv": true,
"company_gw_chart.html": true,
"extractor.py": false,
"validator.py": false
},
"row_counts": {
"source_manifest.csv": 15,
"forecast_vintage.csv": 23,
"capacity_timeseries.csv": 24,
"extractor.py": 0,
"validator.py": 0
},
"production_dir": "/home/dev/research_loop/production/APLD",
"fallback_used": [
"source_manifest.csv",
"forecast_vintage.csv",
"capacity_timeseries.csv",
"company_gw_chart.html"
]
},
{
"ticker": "CORZ",
"complete": false,
"confidence": 0.817,
"files": {
"source_manifest.csv": true,
"forecast_vintage.csv": true,
"capacity_timeseries.csv": true,
"company_gw_chart.html": true,
"extractor.py": false,
"validator.py": false
},
"row_counts": {
"source_manifest.csv": 15,
"forecast_vintage.csv": 23,
"capacity_timeseries.csv": 24,
"extractor.py": 0,
"validator.py": 0
},
"production_dir": "/home/dev/research_loop/production/CORZ",
"fallback_used": [
"source_manifest.csv",
"forecast_vintage.csv",
"capacity_timeseries.csv",
"company_gw_chart.html"
]
},
| # | Run | Status | RC | Mode | Started | Ended | Completed Tasks | Message |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | gw-forecast-production-001-loop01 | task_complete | 0 | plan | 2026-06-07T15:26:33+00:00 | 2026-06-07T15:48:46+00:00 | [
{
"task": "Build ORCL production source_manifest.csv and extractor.py, then emit forecast_vintage.csv from primary SEC/IR sources across \u22658 as-of quarters (FY2024\u2013FY2026). Map quarterly capex guidance, data-center lease commitments, and capex actuals into the canonical vintage schema (as_of_period \u00d7 target_period \u00d7 normalized_gw) with explicit GW-proxy caveats \u2014 Oracle does not disclose direct MW. Use copied context from strategic10-orcl-001 (orcl_source_inventory.csv, orcl_core_evidence_rows.csv) and next3-task2-source-manifest ORCL rows as seeds; do not reuse DLR/EQIX fallback artifacts currently polluting goal_progress.",
"why_this_now": "goal_progress.json sets next_priority_ticker=ORCL with 0/17 companies complete and 20% investment confidence. ORCL\u2019s only existing \u2018artifacts\u2019 are bogus fallbacks (DLR source_manifest, EQIX capacity_timeseries). forecast_vintage.csv is missing for all 17 companies and is the core north-star metric (quarter-by-quarter forecast revision tracking). No machine-gate failure blocks this run (blocked_reason=null). Building ORCL manifest + extractor + vintage panel is the first correct step in the mandated pipeline (manifest \u2192 extractor \u2192 vintage \u2192 timeseries \u2192 chart \u2192 validator) for priority-1 company.",
"verdict": "PASS",
"artifacts": [
"extractor.py",
"forecast_vintage.csv",
"production/ORCL/extractor.py",
"production/ORCL/forecast_vintage.csv",
"production/ORCL/source_manifest.csv",
"source_manifest.csv"
]
}
] | completed one autopilot task |
| 2 | gw-forecast-production-001-loop02 | task_complete | 0 | plan | 2026-06-07T15:48:48+00:00 | 2026-06-07T16:04:45+00:00 | [
{
"task": "Complete ORCL production gates: copy loop01 machine-gate PASS artifacts (source_manifest.csv, extractor.py, forecast_vintage.csv) into production/ORCL/, then derive capacity_timeseries.csv from the vintage panel (\u22658 fiscal quarters: FY2024-FQ4 through FY2026-FQ3), build company_gw_chart.html plotting capex-actual vs latest/original FY2026 capex-guidance vintages (USD billions proxy \u2014 normalized_gw blank per Oracle non-disclosure), and add validator.py enforcing schema, \u22658 quarter rows, https provenance, and snippet integrity. Do not use EQIX/DLR fallback rows.",
"why_this_now": "goal_progress.json sets next_priority_ticker=ORCL (0/17 complete, 74.7% confidence). Loop01 passed machine gate with real ORCL manifest+extractor+vintage (16 rows, 8 as-of periods) but nothing is promoted to production/ORCL/; capacity_timeseries.csv is falsely credited via eqix_rows.csv fallback. No blocked_reason or machine-gate failure in loop02. Finishing ORCL's remaining pipeline steps (timeseries \u2192 chart \u2192 validator) is the highest-leverage path to the first complete company and unlocks the portfolio-aggregation gate.",
"verdict": "PASS",
"artifacts": [
"capacity_timeseries.csv",
"company_gw_chart.html",
"extractor.py",
"forecast_vintage.csv",
"production/ORCL/build_timeseries.py",
"production/ORCL/capacity_timeseries.csv",
"production/ORCL/company_gw_chart.html",
"production/ORCL/extractor.py",
"production/ORCL/forecast_vintage.csv",
"production/ORCL/source_manifest.csv",
"production/ORCL/validator.py",
"source_manifest.csv",
"validator.py"
]
}
] | completed one autopilot task |
| 3 | gw-forecast-production-001-loop03 | task_complete | 0 | plan | 2026-06-07T16:04:47+00:00 | 2026-06-07T16:30:18+00:00 | [
{
"task": "Complete MSFT production gates end-to-end: build production/MSFT/source_manifest.csv (\u22658 fiscal quarters FY2024-FQ4\u2013FY2026-FQ3 with MSFT SEC 10-Q/10-K + IR earnings URLs), implement extractor.py to emit MSFT-specific forecast_vintage.csv (capex actuals + capex-guidance vintages from primary sources; normalized_gw blank per Microsoft non-disclosure), derive capacity_timeseries.csv and company_gw_chart.html (capex USD-bn proxy lines: actual vs latest vs original FY2026 guidance), and add validator.py enforcing schema, \u22658 quarter rows, https provenance, and snippet integrity. Do NOT promote ORCL loop02 or EQIX eqix_rows.csv fallbacks currently polluting goal_progress for MSFT.",
"why_this_now": "goal_progress.json sets next_priority_ticker=MSFT (3/17 complete, 84.9% confidence, threshold 85%). production/MSFT/ is empty \u2014 all four credited CSV/HTML artifacts are cross-ticker fallbacks (ORCL source_manifest/forecast_vintage/company_gw_chart from loop02 + EQIX eqix_rows.csv for capacity_timeseries). Only ORCL has real on-disk production artifacts. No machine-gate failure blocks loop03 (blocked_reason=null). Finishing MSFT with the proven ORCL hyperscaler-capex-proxy pattern is the highest-leverage path to a second investment-grade company, raises portfolio confidence above 85%, and unlocks portfolio_gw_timeseries.csv aggregation once a third company is genuinely complete.",
"verdict": "PASS",
"artifacts": [
"build_timeseries.py",
"capacity_timeseries.csv",
"company_gw_chart.html",
"extractor.py",
"forecast_vintage.csv",
"production/MSFT/build_timeseries.py",
"production/MSFT/capacity_timeseries.csv",
"production/MSFT/company_gw_chart.html",
"production/MSFT/extractor.py",
"production/MSFT/forecast_vintage.csv",
"production/MSFT/source_manifest.csv",
"production/MSFT/validator.py",
"source_manifest.csv",
"validator.py"
]
}
] | completed one autopilot task |
| 4 | gw-forecast-production-001-loop04 | blocked | 1 | plan | 2026-06-07T16:30:20+00:00 | 2026-06-07T16:48:05+00:00 | [] | reviewer codex exec failed (exit 1): codex exited 1 but wrote no output to /home/dev/research_loop/runs/gw-forecast-production-001-loop04/agent_io/iter001_reviewer_c1/output.md OpenAI Codex v0.137.0 -------- workdir: /home/dev model: gpt-5.5 provider: openai approval: never sandbox: danger-full-access reasoning effort: medium reasoning summaries: none session id: 019ea2fb-5593-7433-b45d-bfdc8d0a5bad -------- user You are the Reviewer agent. You verify work quality but do NOT fix issues. ## Your job Review the **persisted artifact file contents** against the task acceptance criteria. Mechanical checks (file exists, tickers present, PRIMARY/SECONDARY labels) are already verified by the harness — focus on content quality. ## Output format Start with exactly one of: VERDICT: PASS or VERDICT: CHANGES_REQUIRED If CHANGES_RE |
| 5 | gw-forecast-production-001-loop05 | task_complete | 0 | repair | 2026-06-07T16:48:07+00:00 | 2026-06-07T16:53:24+00:00 | [
{
"task": "Repair the failed prior child run `gw-forecast-production-001-loop04`.\n\nThe previous task was:\nComplete AMZN production pipeline: replace cross-ticker fallbacks (MSFT manifest/vintage/chart + EQIX timeseries) with real Amazon/AWS primary-source artifacts in production/AMZN/, following the proven ORCL/MSFT hyperscaler capex-proxy pattern (SEC 10-Q/10-K cash-flow capex actuals + earnings-call guidance vintages; normalized_gw blank with explicit caveat).\n\nFix the persisted artifacts from that prior run so the machine gate passes. Do not choose a new task.\nUse the copied context for `gw-forecast-production-001-loop04` and update the same expected artifact names.\n\nPrior child public URL:\nhttp://204.168.210.83:8130/research-loop/gw-forecast-production-001-loop04/index.html\n\nMachine-gate blockers to fix:\n- reviewer codex exec failed (exit 1): codex exited 1 but wrote no output to /home/dev/research_loop/runs/gw-forecast-production-001-loop04/agent_io/iter001_reviewer_c1/output.md\nOpenAI Codex v0.137.0\n--------\nworkdir: /home/dev\nmodel: gpt-5.5\nprovider: openai\napproval: never\nsandbox: danger-full-access\nreasoning effort: medium\nreasoning summaries: none\nsession id: 019ea2fb-5593-7433-b45d-bfdc8d0a5bad\n--------\nuser\nYou are the Reviewer agent. You verify work quality but do NOT fix issues.\n\n## Your job\n\nReview the **persisted artifact file contents** against the task acceptance criteria. Mechanical checks (file exists, tickers present, PRIMARY/SECONDARY labels) are already verified by the harness \u2014 focus on content quality.\n\n## Output format\n\nStart with exactly one of:\n\nVERDICT: PASS\n\nor\n\nVERDICT: CHANGES_REQUIRED\n\nIf CHANGES_RE\n\nPrior artifacts to inspect:\n- build_timeseries.py\n- capacity_timeseries.csv\n- company_gw_chart.html\n- extractor.py\n- forecast_vintage.csv\n- source_manifest.csv\n- validator.py\n",
"why_this_now": "Explicit seed task provided on the command line.",
"verdict": "PASS",
"artifacts": [
"build_timeseries.py",
"capacity_timeseries.csv",
"company_gw_chart.html",
"extractor.py",
"forecast_vintage.csv",
"source_manifest.csv",
"validator.py"
]
}
] | completed one autopilot task |
| 6 | gw-forecast-production-001-loop06 | blocked | 1 | plan | 2026-06-07T16:53:26+00:00 | 2026-06-07T17:20:32+00:00 | [] | reviewer failed after 3 cycle(s): `production/GOOGL/forecast_vintage.csv` stores numeric guidance values that are not supported by the cited row-level source snippets. Examples: FY2026-FQ1 `capex_guidance=185` cites the FY2026 Q1 10-Q qualitative MD&A snippet, not the earnings-call/webcast numeric revision; FY2025-FQ3 `capex_guidance=91` is hindsight-implied from later actual FY2025 capex, not a supported Q3 guidance vintage.; The extractor’s dedupe priority prefers SEC 10-Q qualitative rows over earnings-call/webcast numeric rows, so regeneration can preserve unsupported numeric guidance provenance instead of the primary source that actually contains the numeric guidance.; Several `capex_guidance` rows use qualitative SEC MD&A snippets while storing numeric USD values derived from other sources. That weakens production readiness because `source_url`, `source_location`, and `source_snippet` do not directly substantiate `raw_value`.; The FY2025-FQ3 guidance row appears to backfill a numeric estimate using later FY2025 actuals, which is not a valid as-of guidance vintage under the stated hyperscaler capex-proxy pattern. |
| 7 | gw-forecast-production-001-loop07 | running | None | repair | 2026-06-07T17:20:34+00:00 | None | [] | child started |
Generated 2026-06-07T17:20:34+00:00